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Issue 114   Economic Jitters - Why?       
ISSN: 0219-4147

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"One of the greatest pieces of economic wisdom is to know what you do not know."
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Econmic Jitters First quarter results are coming in and they look very bullish. First call, a U.S. research company that tracks such things has noted 75% of earnings reported are above the average Wall Street analysts forecast. The reports from European and Asian markets is close to the same. Three-quarter's up and higher than expected!

USA GDP for the 1st quarter is forecast to be reported at 4% plus next week. If earnings were up considerably over forecast, I would bet GDP is higher as well. Watch your country reports as they appear on GDP, jobless reports, export data or other indicators and I'll bet you'll find some really good news.So... why are surveys of citizens still recording uncertainty about their personal future, uncertainty over jobs and uncertainty over their economic future?

Maybe it is the perception from media that is sold to viewers/listeners in print, TV and the airwaves. Outsourcing is taking jobs away from industries and countries to lower cost locations. Bubbles are being created in markets; commodities, stocks and real estate. Therefore, a bust is around the corner. Inflation is at hand and the cost of living is going up. There are other stories crying out with potential for problems (war, environment and societies).

So... we have a dilemma! What is real and what is not? I am not sure on every front but let's take a few notes for review :

  1. China, India, Japan, Europe and the U.S. are all consuming scarce resource commodities; coal, iron ore, precious metals and oil. That will cause some inflation but expansion is at hand. The good news is that these commodities are being driven by growth.
  2. Bubbles are false prophets of supply and demand curves. The late 1990's IPOs and extremely high valuations with no earnings. Not so today. Real Estate maybe stretched in one area or another but buyers are plenty as personal income accelerates with growth. Check the markets in your locale.
  3. Jobs are accelerating in demand across the world. Unemployment is 5.6% in the USA and it is the same 5.6% at the low point of the great growth in the mid-90s.

So what's causing the perception problem? Maybe it's the need to write about trouble to sell print and attract viewers and listeners. Maybe it's the politics of elections that drive controversy?

Lighten up and smell the fresh air of growth, expansion and opportunity.

It's a mind game!


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